Upwards of 400,000 Pro-Palestine protestors take the streets in a national march in Washington DC to show support for Palestinians and call for a ceasefire and end the genocide in Gaza, January 13, 2024. (Photo: Eman Mohammed)
Two years since the start of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, U.S. public opinion on Israel, Palestine, and U.S. policy has undergone a profound shift. What was once a marginal foreign policy issue for most U.S. voters has moved to the center of national political debate, stirring visible division, debate, and even voter motivation. Nowhere was this more visible than during the 2024 elections—when pollsters and candidates alike were forced to reckon with the war in Gaza as a live electoral issue—and the changes in opinion have only accelerated in the year since.
For decades, U.S. public opinion has largely remained stable in support of Israel. But a close examination of poll trends over the last two years shows a different story: record-high sympathy for Palestinians, declining support for U.S. military aid to Israel, and growing numbers of American voters who say Israel’s actions in Gaza have gone too far. And the swing isn’t isolated to the left: we see major shifts even among Independents. This is important because more Americans now identify as independent than as Republicans or Democrats. In a polarized political climate, this is a warning sign to the political establishment that Palestine is no longer a niche topic but is an issue with real electoral consequences.
Key trends in public opinion
An increasing number of opinion polls confirm what many of us have suspected: Americans’ views have shifted in ways that mark a significant departure from earlier patterns of near-automatic public support for Israel. Not only is the American public opinion of Israel at an all-time low, but more Americans across the political spectrum also want the war in Gaza to end. What many recent analyses miss is that this position isn’t limited to progressives or young voters; rather, the shift spans all age groups within the Democratic base and, crucially, a significant share of Independents.
One significant shift is that a growing share of Americans now applies the language of “genocide” to Israeli actions in Gaza, mirroring the discourse of international bodies and other states, including Spain , Brazil or South Africa which filed a case against Israel in the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide (and was later joined by a number of states)
Surveys have also tracked Americans’ growing sense that Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive, with about half of Americans now expressing this view. This marks a sharp departure from the widespread support Israel received immediately after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack.
Sympathy for Palestinians has reached record highs across a number of polls, at times surpassing sympathy for Israelis, a major change from just a few years ago. While attitudes on the U.S.’s role in the region remain divided, the fact that sympathy for Palestinians has risen so markedly demonstrates that the issue is no longer confined to the margins of U.S. public opinion. This is a remarkable development in such a short period of time, particularly given the decades-long pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian bias in American media coverage.
Even further, we’re also now seeing that more Americans are less supportive of the U.S. sending military aid to Israel. In the most recent surveys, more Americans oppose than support the U.S. providing additional military assistance to Israel, a notable reversal from decades of relative consensus on military assistance. This shift suggests growing skepticism about U.S. involvement and whether taxpayer dollars should be directed toward military assistance. Considering that the U.S. is Israel’s greatest foreign benefactor, providing close to $4 billion in aid per year (and skyrocketing to at least $17.9 billion in 2024), the erosion of public support for military assistance is significant.
The strongest opposition to Israel’s onslaught on Gaza comes from younger, progressive Americans. According to survey results released earlier this month, solid majorities of likely Democratic voters believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza (72%), strongly support imposing sanctions on the Israeli government (65%), and oppose renewing the U.S.’ commitment to providing weapons to Israel (75%). Among Republicans, by contrast, support for U.S. policy toward Israel remains strong — most back continued military and economic support, and sympathies remain overwhelmingly with Israel. However, GOP views of Israel itself have grown more mixed. Pew finds unfavorable views rising among Republicans, especially younger ones, who are now evenly split in their opinions of Israel.
However, perhaps the most striking shift, as shown in several polls, has occurred among Independents — a pivotal and growing bloc in U.S. elections. In 2023, roughly half of Independents supported U.S. military assistance to Israel. Today, that number has dropped to just 30%. This movement signals that skepticism of Israel’s actions is no longer limited to the left, but is spreading to the very voters who often decide elections.
Beyond the topline findings themselves, the very fact that pollsters are now asking more questions on U.S. policy toward Israel and Palestine is revealing. For years, these questions were asked only sporadically and often framed narrowly around U.S. support for Israel. Today, however, mainstream survey instruments more routinely include items about U.S. military assistance to Israel, Palestinian rights, and the broader U.S. role in the region. The increased frequency and breadth of polling not only reflect rising public interest but also reinforce the issue’s growing salience in U.S. political discourse. Further, pollsters are now posing questions with more morally charged language, including the word “genocide,” signaling that public awareness and readiness to grapple with the issue have risen.
It is difficult to predict how the recent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel will affect polls or public attention to the situation on the ground. Still, one thing is for sure: the genocide has helped introduce a new public awareness and may have led to irreversible shifts in public sentiment toward Israel and Palestine.
Shifting Independent voters
Many observers have already noted the gap between the Democratic base and their elected officials. Attitudes toward the war in Gaza are a prime example of that divide — one that has already had real electoral consequences.
In 2024, nearly 29% of Biden’s 2020 voters who abandoned Kamala Harris cited U.S. support for Israel as their top reason, according to the IMEU policy project. And the issue isn’t fading: a recent IMEU poll shows that 34% of likely Democratic voters say U.S. policy toward Israel will shape their 2026 vote, with most of those voters favoring reduced support for Israel.
And yet the majority of Democratic leaders continue to support Israel and vote against their constituents’ wishes, possibly costing them votes and the confidence of voters. Therefore, it is incumbent upon Democratic leaders to come out forcefully against Israel’s actions and to take positions that are widely popular with their voters, such as reducing military assistance to Israel and increasing humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
More importantly, if Democrats are serious about taking back power, they must pay attention not only to their partisan constituents but also to Independent voters. In poll after poll, Independent voters are inching closer to Democrats’ critical views of Israel; whether that’s with regard to military support for Israel, sympathy for Palestinians, or the sentiment that Israel has “gone too far.” This suggests that taking a critical stance on Israel would be well-received not just in deep blue areas like New York City, where Zohran Mamdani has been lauded for his support for Palestinians, but also in more moderate or mixed districts.
Politicians would be wise to pay attention to these shifts — and the broader reasons driving voters away from the parties and toward the Independent bloc. For Americans who prioritize issues over party loyalty, there is an increasing awareness of the connections between genocide, Israeli occupation, and the impact of their tax dollars on domestic priorities. As these links become clearer, they are more likely to support candidates who are willing to break from the status quo and address their concerns.
Opportunity for Democrats
This moment represents an unprecedented opening for progressive and center-left leaders to stake out bold positions on Israel and Palestine, and there are a number of actions they can take. First, they can pledge to refuse AIPAC money, joining a number of senators, members of Congress, and state and local officials who have already made this pledge. This is a hugely popular position, not only for those who find Israel’s actions repugnant but also for the large swaths of the American electorate that oppose special interests interfering in our politics.
Federal lawmakers should also cosponsor legislation like the Block the Bombs Act (H.R. 3565) to stop the flow of deadly weapons to Israel. It’s promising that (at the time of writing) nearly 100 Democratic lawmakers have signed on to this bill, but many more still need to follow suit. They could also back measures that, according to the recent IMEU poll, enjoy strong support among Democratic voters — such as banning U.S. credit for Israeli bonds (76% support), restricting imports of Israeli-made weapons (75%), and denying entry to Israeli officials and soldiers (62%). These policies mirror the global sanctions that helped end apartheid in South Africa, and Democrats can build electoral momentum while meeting their constituents’ demands by championing them now.
A rising chorus of voices is arguing that taking a bold stance against Israel now is not only a moral position, but it is also a pragmatic one. Americans — not only Democrats but also Independents — are increasingly calling for restraint on military assistance, greater humanitarian support, and accountability for Israel’s actions in Gaza.
For U.S. leaders, opposing Israel’s policies is no longer just a matter of conscience. It is a position deeply rooted in public opinion, without which they fail to live up to their stated democratic ideals. Those willing to act boldly now will not only be on the right side of history, but they will also show themselves on the frontlines of preserving our democracy by responding to the will of their constituents.
